by
Chengjian Su
Abstract
We propose a Multi-factor (including macro-economic variable, microeconomic variable and market variable) and a Three Factor (including intrinsic value, technical factor, and liquidity) asset pricing models, and carries on the empirical study of China’s stock market. It reports that market return essentially affects on individual stock return, and β is significantly positive ranging from 0.41 to 0.53. EPS exerts the strongest positive influence on stock price, with the coefficient close to 1; while GDP growth rate, money supply, deposit interest rate, inflation rate, saving amount, and loan amount exert significant negative influence. The result demonstrates that we can effectively find out the key factors of stock pricing by the Multi-factor model, while the Three Factor Model can well price them.
Key words: Multifactor Model, Three- factor Model, Technical factor, Liquidity
Chengjian Su is from the School of Business at Shantou University. Shantou City, Guangdong Province, ZipCode:515063,China.
Introduction
Capital Asset Pricing Model is the core of modern finance theory. It was first proposed by Sharpe (1963, 1964), and perfected by Mossin (1966) and Lintner (1965, 1969). The first test of CAPM was carried out by Lintner (1965). Miller and Scholes (1972) reinvestigated CAPM by employing the ten year data (1954-1963) of 631 stocks on New York Stock Exchange. Their results did not support CAPM. Roll (1977) made his famous criticism: there were fundamental problem while using a proxy for the market portfolio, such as Standard & Pool 500 index.
Because the CAPM model was empirically suspected, Ross (1976) advanced his Arbitrage Pricing Theory. Advocates of APT pointed out that compared with CAPM, APT had two advantages: first, it had less hypothesis limitation about investor’s risk and return preference; second, it could be examined by empirical study. Roll and Ross (1980) conducted an empirical study by using the stock data that ranged from 1962 to 1972, discovering that at least three or four factors influenced the combined stock return. Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) supposed several macro-economic variables as the systematical factors that affect the market income of stock. And they proved their hypothesis.
MacKinlay (1995) carried out an empirical study and put forward a new model. He discovered that it was very difficult to prove that the deviation of CAPM was caused by lacking of risk factor; but it was easy to prove the deviation that caused by non-risk factors. Meanwhile, he also found that Multi-factor model could not explain the deviation of CAPM.
Fama and French (1992) studied the data of American stock market from 1962 to 1989, focusing on the relation of stock return and market BETA, company size, finance lever, B/M ratio, E/P ratio, cash flow, sales increase, long-term return and short-term return. They found that market BETA, finance lever and E/P ratio can hardly explain stock return, while the unity of the two factors company size and B/M ratio could nearly achieve.
After conducting an empirical study on the data of American stock market that ranged from 1963 to 1993, Fama and French (1996) put forward the famous Three Factor Model. They thought that stock return could be interpreted by the three factors including market risk premium, company size premium and B/M premium.
In recent years, the burgeoning Asian stock markets have attracted the research interest worldwide. Chui and Wei (1998) firstly verify the Fama and French Three Factor Model in Asian stock markets. They studied the relation between stock return and β coefficient, B/M, and company size in the stock markets of Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand. They found that the average stock return had little to do with the β coefficient, but was strongly related to B/M ratio and company size.
Drew Naughton and Veeraraghavan (2002) applied the Fama and French Three Factor Model to Shanghai A stock market. They found that B/M ratio was untenable in Shanghai A stock market, but the β coefficient and company were relevant for stock return. Risk could not well explain this phenomenon, whereas investors’ irrational behaviors did.
The domestic Chinese scholars, such as Chen Langnan, Qu Wenzhou (2000), Chen Xinyuan, Zhang Tianyu, Chen Donghua (2001), Fang Longzhen, Wang Haitao (2003), Wang Chengwei, Wu Chongfeng(2003), Jia Quan, Chen Zhangwu (2003), Dan Yaowen (2004), Wu Shinong and Xu Nianxing (2004), mainly focus on the validity of the Fama and French Three Factor Model in China’s stock market and other micro-factors that determine stock returns. They leave the empirical study of Multi-factor model that takes macro-factor into consideration blank. Su Dongwei, Mai yuanxun (2004) conducted an empirical study of turnover ratio and expected return. They found that asset of less liquidity had high expected return.
Some scholars have carried out empirical test on the relationship between Chinese stock market return and the macro-economic indexes. Zhao Xingqiu (1999) studied the relation between Chinese stock market return and inflation and total industrial output growth. He found that the inflation and stock return was significantly negatively correlated; the relation between total industrial output growth and stock return was not simply positively correlative; the expected output growth caused stock return to fluctuate to the opposite direction while the non-expected output growth caused stock return go to the same direction. These findings portrayed the statistical feature of the undulation of China’s stock market. However, after controlling the effect of output growth, the relation of inflation and stock return disappeared, which showed that the effect of inflation on stock return came from the relationships of output and stock return, output and inflation. This just kept the same with the view of Fama.
Shang Pengyue and Li Shenghong (2002) studied the cointegration relation of Shanghai and Stock Exchange index and macroscopical economic indicator. Basing on eh cointegration analysis of Multi-factor, he established a predictive model of the two by using error revise model. Its result showed that, from January 1995 to September 2000, Shanghai Stock Exchange index was sensitive to the changes of long-term interest rate, short-term interest rate and money supply, but did not have a long time balanced relation with GDP, investment in fixed assets and national price index. This has some guidance function to the study of securities market of China.
Through empirical study, Yan Yanyang, Li Zhi, Xu Junping (2004) discovered that co-integration relation existed between Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market index and some macro-economic factors; share index could reflect the whole trend and level of economy development of China to some extent, but as having weak relation with GDP, they still could not make “barometer” of economy development of China. This means that present development of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is not mature enough. Stock market is interfered heavily by the noisy, non-economic factors like main banker control, administrative interference, excessive speculation and information asymmetry.
In sum, viewed from domestic and foreign scholars’ studies on the CAPM, APT, the Fama and French Three Factor Model, and macro-economic factor (Chen-Roll-Ross) model, we can find that these asset pricing models take into consideration market equilibrium, the micro-economic conditions (the Fama and French Three Factor Model and multi-micro-economic variable model), and macro-economic variables (Chen-Roll-Ross model), respectively. This paper starts from analyzing the drives that cause the change of stock price, and then establishes the econometrics model of asset pricing incorporating micro-economic and macro-economic variable, conducts empirical study on China’s stock market, finally draws an innovative conclusion.
The rest part of this paper is organized as follows. Part II first establishes the regression model which reflects macro-economic factor, micro-economic factor, and market factor within the APT framework. Then it carries out empirical study on verifying the factors that affect stock return, such as macro factors (e.g. time limit structure of interest rate, consumption, petroleum price, money supply and stock market policy), micro factors (e.g. book market value ratio (B/M), size effect ratio (SIZE), capital stock structure, earning per share (EPS), investment surplus stock price ratio (EP), cash flow to stock price ratio, net assets growth per share, sale proceeds growth per share), technical factors (e.g. Composite Index of Shanghai Stock Exchange and Component Index of Shenzhen Stock Exchange), and liquidity factor (e.g. the turnover rate). Part III set up the empirical regression model that portrays technical factor, inherent value and liquidity, and carries out empirical study. Finally, Part IV analyses and draws the conclusion.
